What the next Trump administration might mean for higher education

What might a second Trump administration mean for academia?

I’ve been exploring this question as a futurist for some time. Way back in 2016 I blogged about Trump’s higher education possibilities. We read Project 2025 for months in our open, online bookclub. I dug into JD Vance’s academic attitudes when Trump picked him as VP. In October we held a Future Trends Forum scenario exercise, exploring a Trump win (including his winning the popular vote).

Today I’ll summarize those findings and discussions in order to show possible directions and impacts, updated to include recent developments. First up are potential direct impacts, as when the new administration issues higher education policies. Next we explore potential effects on academia of non-academic Trump actions.

I’m drawing on work done by observers, journalists, and commentators, usually linked to those sources. I hope to add my own thoughts to the discussion, including some points generally missed so far.

Please note that these are possibilities, options. That’s how I’ve done my futures work for years, extrapolating and deriving what might happen next by examining the present and recent history. I must strengthen this caveat by noting that it’s even more difficult to pin down precise outcomes with Trump, who is so wildly uneven and changeable. Much depends on whom he appoints to key positions, what he hears from postulants, and what he sees on television.