Two competing visions of fall higher education, plus a ghostly third
What will fall 2020 look like in higher education?
I’ve been exploring this topic for months. In April I published three scenarios for colleges and universities may approach the fall 2020 semester in the wake of COVID-19, based on different ways the pandemic might play out, which were posted in March. I followed those up with real world examples of each scenario, as different institutions subsequently issued announcements about their plans.
Let’s see how things are playing out now, in the middle of May.
To recap, the three fall scenarios are:
- The Post-Pandemic Campus. A college or university deems the pandemic to be over, or managed, or about as dangerous as the winter flu, and so opens up for face-to-face education and activities.* (I posted some problems with this here.)
- COVID Fall. A campus plans on an online fall term, seeing the pandemic as too dangerous and/or not being able to administer appropriate countermeasures.
- Toggle Term. Campus leaders are ready to toggle between online and in-person education depending on conditions.
Post-Pandemic Campus Since I last posted, more American colleges and universities have announced plans to open up. The Chronicle has one list with about 13% of the US sector; out of that, about 70% are saying they expect to resume face-to-face instruction.
A key assumption in this scenario planning is that the American COVID-19 pandemic peaks sometime this summer, then drops. We can see evidence for that belief in the latest IHME projections, for infections:
And a similar patterns for deaths:
There are other assumptions, leading with: that students will enroll in greater numbers for face-to-face classes than online ones. In some cases, campus leaders may see in-person operation as the only alternative to shutting down forever.
My assumption is that many of these cases, if carried out, will involve serious shifting in resources. More resources to certain academic programs (allied health care), more to certain administrative units (IT, academic computing, marketing, enrollment) — and fewer to others. A net loss, overall.
COVID Fall In contrast, other institutions find taking most or all of their mission online is best. They may largely be motivated by a desire to reduce infections, injuries, and deaths, fearing that in-person operations are just too dangerous. There are many examples of this train of thought.
The most prominent recent example of COVID Fall has been the 23-campus California State University system, which will teach online this fall.
…so we can find examples of my first two scenarios. The third, Toggle Term, has been harder to find in the real world.
Yet on-campus planning may actually be headed that way. Campus IT is preparing for Toggle Term in terms of HyFlex and other modes, according to a new EDUCAUSE poll. Here is what respondents are gearing up to do:
Community college dean Matt “Dean Dad” Reed (and excellent 2017 Future Trends Forum guest) posited a version of the Toggle Term, with a clear sequence:
one possible scenario has us off-campus in September and maybe October, and then having the option to return to campus after that. In anticipation of that scenario, a proposal making the rounds is to post “remote live” classes (synchronous online) for the fall with classrooms tied to them. The courses would be held at set times remotely until we get the all clear, at which point they’d move to campus for the rest of the semester. (Asynchronous online classes would remain as they are.)
“In other words, the proposal is the mirror image of the spring. Instead of starting on campus and then moving off, we’d start off-campus and move on.” The column’s commentators did not approve, mostly.
To sum up: at least two of these scenarios are in full swing. COVID Fall is a viable option and the Post-Pandemic Campus leads the way. In contrast Toggle Term seems to be a hidden third choice, a ghostly option now, at least in public. Few want to mention it, but campus IT looks ready to roll it out.
Let’s see how colleges and universities continue down the path for fall 2020.
*Several readers have taken issue with the term “post-pandemic,” arguing that it diminishes the reality of a dangerous virus. To explain: I use this term to describe someone’s mindset, where they see COVID-19 as no longer in emergency mode. These people may think the pandemic phase is over, in that the virus has been controlled. Or they find that while other regions may suffer, they themselves are not in danger.
This is a question of perception. With that scenario title I am not describing biological reality, but the viewpoint of certain people.
Again, I am describing someone else’s attitude. Not my own.
Originally published at https://bryanalexander.org on May 17, 2020.
