Three years of pandemic: risks, losses, and lessons

Three years ago today I posted this:

Three years, 124 posts, and a planetary storm later — where do we stand?

I had in mind a long essay for this anniversary. But for reasons which will become clear below, I determined that nobody would read that far, so I opt instead to be concise. I also wanted to reminisce about my own work on COVID-19, but didn’t think that would be of interest to most. So let’s cut to the chase. Hang on — I’m going to go quickly.

I: What was actually unprecedented

In late 2019 what became known as COVID-19 appeared in Wuhan, then started spreading. In early 2020 that coronavirus began to race around the world and people who should have known better called it “unprecedented.”

From February 14, 2020. Look at that map. Look at the death toll.

Even the most casual glance at history shows ample precedent for contagious diseases attacking societies, but enough people either never thought of this, or just extrapolated from their own shock and good fortune to assume the whole of civilization had never been afflicted, so the stupid meme took off. (Nations which recently endured contagions like SARS and MERS tended to be, in contrast, wiser.)