Simulations and scenarios for the Ukrainian crisis

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, many wonder how it might conclude. Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? How will the western sanction strategy impact Russia?

This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. A scenario is small story about a potential future. Typically we build them based on one or two driving forces, and often produce several together for comparative purposes. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make…