Simulations and scenarios for the Ukrainian crisis

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, many wonder how it might conclude. Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? How will the western sanction strategy impact Russia?

This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. A scenario is small story about a potential future. Typically we build them based on one or two driving forces, and often produce several together for comparative purposes. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make decisions to drive that situation to an end state. A simulation may resemble a game, or be one, as with wargames or business simulations. A scenario is ant object to think through, while a simulation gives users ways to intervene in the problem.

I find scenarios help us think about futures usefully. As stories they are very accessible, allowing us to imagine ourselves in them. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. Simulations perform a similar function, as a given run-through constitutes a narrative. Simulations can also shed light on difficult and emergent decisions, as well as surprising us as the future often can.

People have been creating scenarios and simulations of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict since it began in 2014, as well as some predating that time. Indeed, it looks like the Biden administration took both simulations and scenarios seriously in their planning. I’ll share some here in the hope they…