Short-term thoughts for the American election: possibilities for unrest

Greetings from Sunday, November 3rd. I’m writing this from the travel zone of airports, airplanes, Ubers, and hotels, as I head off to a presentation. I’m writing in some haste.

This week is the American election day, obviously. I’ve been writing a post about long-term trends embodied in the event, but wanted first to share thoughts on the short term.

There is a great deal of anxiety about civil unrest around the election. We modeled something similar in our two election scenarios on the Future Trends Forum (Trump win; Harris victory). I’ve been writing about it here for a while, as some readers might remember: historical models, possibilities after Trump’s 2016 election, some pushback against Trump in 2018, that movie, opposition to DEI, those mysterious power station attacks (1, 2), the polycrisis, and American attitudes. I’ve also brooded up possibilities of climate activism taking direct action in various ways.

Talk of unrest and violence is in the air. A recent poll found many Americans worried about election dangers.

The reality of violence is scant so far, but present. Someone set fire to ballot boxes. Arizona police arrested a man for shooting at election offices and amassing weapons. Philadelphia police arrested another man for…