Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as climate crisis war

When does the climate crisis lead to war?

Let me share some notes and speculations.

For years analysts have forecast that global warming would likely accelerate or directly cause armed conflict. One way for such wars to occur is when environmental disasters drive social or political instability. Another is for nations or other forces to war for limited resources, such as water or energy sources. (I recommend Christian Parenti’s Tropic of Chaos as a good start on the topic.)

Some have looked into modern history and seen that first model already at work. In this view the Darfur War (2003-ongoing) or the Syrian Civil War (2011-ongoing) are struggles either worsened or simply kicked off by aspects of climate change, namely droughts.

Perhaps we can think of the present Russian war in Ukraine as a climate change war, yet in a different way from those in Darfur and Syria. Or different in several different ways which suggest new forms of 21st century conflict.

First, the Ukrainian war now includes a new geopolitical weapon: financially striking an opponent’s ability to produce and sell oil. States can wield this weapon against other nations, as can other entities, including corporations. As I write this the United States and allied nations have taken many steps to attack the Russian economy, from sanctioning banks and oligarchs to blocking individual payments via Google and Apple. The ruble is sinking quickly in value and Russia’s…