Preparing for a second Trump administration

What might the next American presidential administration mean for higher education?

I’ve been tracking the US election closely, given the many impacts its results could have on colleges and universities. Until last month I thought the race too close to call this far ahead, with each candidate having a 50% chance of winning, taking into account various factors and metrics: polls, prediction markets, the thirteen keys model, and so on.

Now, after the first debate and its fallout, I think it’s time to plan on the likelihood of a second Trump presidency.

Obviously this is a chaotic moment. News organizations are increasingly asking Biden to step aside, which is inflecting their report. A growing number of politicians, pundits, activists, and donors are openly calling for Biden to step down as well as to suggest replacements. There is a great deal of spin, leaking, lobbying, and a fierce amount of backstage scheming. Sifting through this as best I can, I think what’s emerging is that Biden’s chances have dipped down and Trump’s have grown. Poll-minder extraordinaire Nate Silver thinks Trump now has 2:1 odds over Biden.

Four months is a long time in politics. All kinds of things could happen: a health crisis for either candidate; changes to either the Gaza or Ukraine wars; twists to the American…