How many people do we think belong to a certain group?

Contemporary American politics has a tendency to focus on identity, as commentators and politicians assure us. Yet we may be thinking about this pretty badly, according to a new YouGov report. If their poll is correct, Americans tend to massively overestimate some smaller group sizes while seriously underestimating larger ones.

As a futurist I’m fascinated by the results. What they reveal about contemporary American thinking suggests a lot of directions for politics and culture to take.