How do we think of our present time, looking to the future? The 2022 Polycrisis and what comes next

Today is a Sunday in northeastern Virginia. It’s a very warm afternoon now, the temperature around 88°F (31°C) and humidity driving the heat index to 100°F (38°C). The cats are resting inside, sensibly basking in air conditioning after lazing on the hot catio this morning. I’m with them, prepping for three classes starting this month, but also wanting to share a futures thought which I’ve been noodling on for a while.

This post is about big picture thinking. I don’t mean just higher education’s future, my usual area of concern, but the future of humanity.

Question: how do we understand our present time, as we think of possible futures to follow?

This is always a tricky exercise. It’s hard to get some intellectual distance from urgent matters, and perhaps harder still to apprehend key developments which, while quiet now, will grow to shape the future. History shows many thoughtful people understanding their present day in ways we find skewed or just wrong. Yet I’ve been thinking about a term one historian’s been tossing around. It feels like a productive idea to reflect with, and it’s been helping me consider a bunch of trends. It helps me think about the present as it points to futures.

It comes from the awesome Adam Tooze (check out his fine newsletter), who has lately been writing about our times as afflicted by a “polycrisis.” It’s a simple enough idea: multiple…