A shattered consensus: the end of college for everyone

For a generation or more America has held a rough cultural consensus: that the more people go to college, the better. In fact, some have argued for everyone to get some higher ed experience, or least to prepare all K-12 students for that choice.

What if that consensus is breaking up? What might happen if most of America is no longer convinced of “college for all”?

In this post I’d like to explore such a scenario. I’ll back it up with a bit of research, focusing on current trends, then conclude with some forecasting, and leave the idea open for your commentary, critique, and development.

This is a long one, so grab a cup of your preferred beverage and buckle in.

1: The Inherited Consensus

We can start by recollecting the recent consensus. Over recent decades, American society called for increasing numbers of people to get college and university degrees. We saw the proof of this desire in the long enrollment boom stretching from the 1980s through 2012.

The reasons behind the consensus are easy to identify: the need to prepare workers and residents for an information economy; the belief that a more educated population is wealthier and healthier; the personal benefits of degrees. These reasons became more evident as America…